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🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – SUNDAY, MAY 18, 2025 (Updated 16:30Z)
SPC Risk Level: MODERATE (Level 4 of 5)
Valid through 7 AM CDT Monday

📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones
🔴 MODERATE Risk (898K people): Wichita, KS, Hutchinson, KS, Hays, KS, Derby, KS, Newton, KS
🟠 ENHANCED Risk (3.4M people): Oklahoma City, OK, Norman, OK, Wichita Falls, TX, Lawton, OK, Edmond, OK
🟡 SLIGHT Risk (17.3M people): Dallas, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Kansas City, MO, Omaha, NE, Tulsa, OK
🟢 MARGINAL Risk (16.4M people): Memphis, TN, St. Louis, MO, Birmingham, AL, Shreveport, LA, Columbus, GA

🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones
🟥 15% Tornado Risk with Hatched Area (EF2+ potential): Wichita, KS, Hutchinson, KS, Hays, KS, Derby, KS, Newton, KS
🟧 10% Tornado Risk with Hatched Area: Enid, OK, Salina, KS, Stillwater, OK, Dodge City, KS, Ponca City, OK
🟤 5% Tornado Risk: Dallas, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK, Arlington, TX
🟢 2% Tornado Risk: Kansas City, MO, Lincoln, NE, Little Rock, AR, Overland Park, KS, Springfield, MO

What the Percentages Mean
A 15% tornado risk means a 1 in 7 chance of a tornado within 25 miles of you, with potential for strong to violent (EF2+) tornadoes, including long-track supercells.
The hatched area represents zones most favorable for significant, long-lived tornadoes.

📝 Overview
A regional tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon and evening across southwest and central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma, with an extremely unstable atmosphere and strong shear profiles supporting intense supercells.
Farther south into north TX and the eastern Panhandle, storms may be more isolated, but still capable of producing giant hail and tornadoes.
Additionally, damaging winds and brief tornadoes are possible across parts of MS, AL, and GA this afternoon.

⛈️ Hazards Include
🌪️ Several tornadoes, including strong/long-track EF2+
🧊 Giant hail (up to 3–4 inches in diameter)
💨 Widespread damaging wind gusts (possibly exceeding 70 mph)

🕓 Timeline
🕓 Mid to Late Afternoon (3–6 PM CDT): Supercells develop across central and southwest KS, and parts of north TX
🌆 Evening (6–9 PM CDT): Tornado threat peaks; large hail and QLCS tornadoes also possible
🌒 Overnight (9 PM – 2 AM CDT): Storms may evolve into clusters with wind and embedded tornado risk
🌄 Morning: Residual clusters move east into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley

📌 Regional Notes
🔴 South-Central Kansas: Prime corridor for strong, long-track tornadoes
🟠 Western North TX: Supercells possible near dryline bulge—very large hail and tornado threat
🟡 Southeast US (MS, AL, GA): Damaging gusts possible with daytime heating along MCS outflow boundaries

⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware
If you are in or near Wichita, Hutchinson, or Salina, today is a high-end tornado setup.
Review shelter plans, have multiple ways to receive alerts, and be ready to act quickly. This includes being off roads and near sturdy shelter by mid-afternoon.

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In-Vehicle
Driver, Man-of-Action - ‪@ReedTimmerWx‬
Navigator, Man-of-Music - @localmanweatherofficial
Social, Man-of-People - @EdgarTheStormChaser

Studio
Host, Man-of-Mystery - @brianvotoole
Co-Host, Man-of-Brady (StormCat5) - ‪@StormFrontFreaks‬

And HUGE Thanks to RED EARTH TECH! - www.red-earth.tech/